The situation, in brief
Meteorologists in the United States have warned that this year’s El Niño could be among the strongest of the century. US officials confirmed that El Niño has officially formed, a climate pattern that could intensify weather events worldwide. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration…
Meteorologists in the United States have warned that this year’s El Niño could be among the strongest of the century.
US officials confirmed that El Niño has officially formed, a climate pattern that could intensify weather events worldwide.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the phenomenon is marked by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which disrupt global weather patterns.
In its latest advisory, NOAA said there is a 63% chance of a “very strong” El Niño developing between November and January, potentially ranking among the most powerful events on record since 1950.
In an explainer video, NOAA meteorologist Haley Thiem said, “El Niño is here, and it could be one for the history books.”
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the development as an “urgent climate warning.”
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” Guterres said.
“The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis—ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” he added.
Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists warned that the combination of climate change driven by fossil fuels and a potential super El Niño “makes a terrible team,” which could push global temperatures to record highs.
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, said this year’s El Niño is “not just another weather forecast” but a “deadly siren to be feared.”
“It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again,” he said.
Climate scientist Abby Frazier of Clark University said El Niño can trigger extreme weather conditions across different regions.
“It is bringing a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling extreme events in many parts of the world,” she said.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, also said a very strong or even record-breaking El Niño could develop in the latter part of 2026.
“The odds are strongly in favor of a moderate to strong, or possibly record-breaking, event at this stage,” he said.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) urged countries to prepare, warning that a strong El Niño could further raise global temperatures.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“The WMO community will continue to closely monitor conditions in the coming months to guide governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and reduce impacts on economies and communities,” she added. — Photo from WMO
