The situation, in brief
Oil prices rose on Thursday on a report the U.S. is considering potential military action against Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations to end the war, increasing concerns of more supply disruptions to already curtailed Middle East exports. Brent crude futures for June rose $5.27, or 4.5%…
Oil prices rose on Thursday on a report the U.S. is considering potential military action against Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations to end the war, increasing concerns of more supply disruptions to already curtailed Middle East exports.
Brent crude futures for June rose $5.27, or 4.5%, to $123.30 a barrel as of 0347 GMT after gaining 6.1% in the previous session. The June contract, which has increased for a ninth day, expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was at $113.10, up $2.66, or 2.4%, after gaining 5.8% in the previous session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June were up $2.42, or 2.3%, at $109.30 a barrel, after climbing 7% in the previous session, climbing in eight of nine sessions.
Both benchmarks are on track for their fourth month of gains.
U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations on its nuclear programme, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday.
The U.S. and Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28 and it retaliated by closing off almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy supplies from Middle Eastern producers. Amid a ceasefire that has paused active combat, the U.S. has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.
Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what analysts say is the world’s biggest energy disruption ever, have deadlocked, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme and Iran demanding some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war.
“The oil market has moved from over-optimism to the reality of the supply disruption we are seeing in the Persian Gulf,” said ING analysts in a note.
In a sign the conflict and resulting energy supply disruptions are set to continue for longer, Trump spoke on Wednesday with oil companies about how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade, a White House official said.
“Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
The OPEC+ grouping of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is likely to agree a small increase of around 188,000 barrels per day in oil output quotas on Sunday, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
The meeting comes just after the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1, which is expected to deal a blow to the oil producer group’s ability to control prices. Although the Gulf nation’s exit would allow it to raise production after exports restart, analysts say that is unlikely to affect market fundamentals this year, especially with the Hormuz closure and other production disruptions from the war.
“Gulf countries, including the UAE, will take months to return to pre-war production volumes,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said in a note. — Reuters
