Strong El Niño could worsen global fuel crisis, Chinese scientists warn

Chinese government scientists are warning that this year’s El Niño could drive up global demand for fossil fuels and compound the energy price increases triggered by the ongoing Iran crisis.

The South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing the China Meteorological Administration, reported that moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions are forecast to emerge next month and develop throughout the rest of the year.

The climate phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, causes a rise in average global temperatures and can bring droughts or flooding that force hydropower stations to reduce output or shut down entirely.

“El Nino could hit hydropower-dependent regions hard, pushing them to burn more fossil fuels for electricity instead. That would raise both carbon emissions and the cost of imported energy, creating a damaging loop that worsens climate change and strains economies,” said Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the National Climate Centre, as quoted by SCMP.

The warning follows sharp increases in global oil prices caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which prompted the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping lane for global energy supplies.

Hydropower-dependent regions in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa are seen as particularly vulnerable to the compounding pressures.

Wang noted that a very strong El Niño can trigger severe floods that force hydropower plants offline while also damaging infrastructure through landslides and high water levels, or alternatively cause droughts that sharply reduce water supply for power generation.

However, the National Climate Centre urged caution against speculation circulating on social media, with chief forecaster Chen Lijuan saying it is premature to assert the Earth will hit a new temperature extreme this year, though she acknowledged the associated risks are significantly rising.